Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has ignited debate with his prediction that human drivers on the platform could be largely replaced by autonomous vehicles (AVs) within the next 10 to 20 years. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Khosrowshahi emphasized that while drivers remain critical to Uber’s operations today, the company is preparing for a future where self-driving cars dominate urban mobility. The remarks come amid rapid advancements in AV technology and growing partnerships between Uber and industry leaders like Waymo, Cruise, and Nvidia.
A Phased Transition to Automation
Khosrowshahi envisions a “hybrid network” blending human drivers and AVs over the next decade, with autonomous vehicles initially handling simpler routes in geofenced urban areas like Austin and Atlanta. These pilot programs, developed through partnerships with 14 AV firms, aim to refine safety protocols and operational efficiency before broader deployment. By 2035, however, he anticipates AVs will outperform humans in reliability and safety, having been trained on “lifetimes of driving data” to reduce the 1 million annual global traffic fatalities linked to human error.
Despite optimism, challenges persist. Current AVs struggle with low-light conditions, complex urban environments, and regulatory hurdles. A 2024 study by the University of Central California found AVs were five times more likely to crash at dawn or dusk compared to human drivers, underscoring lingering technical gaps. Khosrowshahi acknowledged these limitations, noting that commercialization remains years away due to high hardware costs and infrastructure demands.
Economic Implications for Drivers and Riders
Uber’s 7 million monthly drivers earned $18.1 billion in Q3 2024, a 14% year-over-year increase, reflecting the platform’s reliance on gig workers. To ease the eventual transition, Uber is diversifying income opportunities for drivers, including roles in AI training, mapping, and delivery logistics. For example, drivers in Las Vegas and San Francisco already supplement earnings by contributing data to AV algorithms.
The shift could also reshape pricing models. While AVs eliminate labor costs, initial deployments have been premium-priced due to expensive sensor arrays and maintenance. Waymo rides in San Francisco, for instance, often cost more than human-driven alternatives . Uber aims to lower fares long-term by scaling AV fleets and integrating shared rides, such as its Uber Pool service, which reduces per-passenger expenses by 40% .
Industry Partnerships and Technological Investments
Uber’s strategy hinges on collaboration rather than in-house AV development. After selling its self-driving unit, Uber ATG, to Aurora in 2020, the company forged alliances with Waymo, Cruise, and Nvidia. A recent CES 2025 announcement revealed Uber’s use of Nvidia’s generative AI tool, Cosmos, to simulate driving environments and accelerate AV training . These partnerships aim to offset the $800 million Uber has committed to sustainability initiatives, including electrifying its fleet and expanding charging infrastructure .
Competitors like Lyft are pursuing similar paths, with 130,000 AV rides completed in Las Vegas through partnerships with Motional and May Mobility. However, analysts caution that widespread AV adoption depends on regulatory alignment and public trust—factors still evolving in key markets.
Looking Ahead: A Mobility Crossroads
The AV transition mirrors the debates from the late 2010s, when experts predicted rapid disruption but underestimated technical and societal hurdles. Khosrowshahi’s timeline aligns with forecasts from a 2018 The Week analysis, which speculated that AVs would dominate by 2030 but face resistance from entrenched driving cultures.
For now, Uber’s hybrid model seeks to balance innovation with stability. As Khosrowshahi noted, “Humans will have plenty of work for the next decade, but society must prepare for what comes after”. Whether AVs deliver on their promise of safer, cheaper rides—or deepen inequalities in the gig economy—remains a pivotal question for the mobility sector.
Sources: Entrepreneur, Business Insider, TechCrunch, The Economist, Intelligencer
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